Modelamiento predictivo de afectaciones ecosistémicas en la Esperanza (Villanueva-Casanare) con un enfoque geo-espacial integrado

Abstract

Predictive modeling of ecosystem impacts on private lands using geospatial data is a crucial tool for wildlife conservation and natural resource management. This approach integrates advanced analyses of satellite imagery, climatic data, and geographic models to anticipate land-cover changes and their effects on biodiversity.Land-cover change was assessed using Sentinel-2 and Landsat imagery, focusing on La Esperanza in Villanueva, Casanare, from 2018 to the present. The analysis revealed relative stability in both forested and pasture areas, with temporary variations caused by the dynamics of the Upía River, which periodically altered land cover.A biological survey of the property recorded 35 animal species and 19 plant families, providing the foundation for modeling wildlife corridors. Ten of the 35 animal species were selected for connectivity modeling at two spatial scales: property-level (3,000 meters between points) and landscape-level (10,000 meters between points). Future scenarios were also modeled under a complete land-cover change, considering both forest and pasture replacement. The results consistently showed significant disconnection at the landscape scale, as forest patches lack continuity. The only nearby continuous forest is associated with an oil palm plantation adjacent to the property. The species most affected by this lack of connectivity are primates, particularly Alouatta seniculus and Saimiri albigena, which face severe challenges in their movements—except within the property under current conditions and in the simulated forest-cover scenario. Other species show greater adaptability across different environments; however, the forest patch in the southern and southwestern sectors of the property stands out as a key wildlife passage and as a natural buffer against disturbances, such as those generated by the Upía River.Finally, the scarcity of fauna studies in agro-landscapes in Casanare, combined with the absence of formal biodiversity protection measures (such as national parks or reserves) and the expansion of large-scale crops such as rice, oil palm, and maize, represents a major threat to the long-term conservation of biodiversity in the region.