Análisis de costos asociados a la extinción de incendios forestales en Colombia durante el período 2012-2024

Abstract

Colombia is facing an increasing occurrence of wildfires due to its geographic diversity and environmental conditions, a situation exacerbated by climate change and phenomena such as El Niño. Over the past decade, approximately 1,124,200 hectares of forest have been affected, putting essential ecosystem services at risk. In response to this issue, the National Unit for Disaster Risk Management (UNGRD) and the Francisco José de Caldas District University (UDFJC) developed a study (carried out as an internship-based undergraduate thesis) aimed at evaluating national investment in aerial firefighting resources, as well as in the strengthening of tools and personnel of the entities that make up the National Disaster Risk Management System (SNGRD) over the past 13 years. The study included the collection of historical data, statistical analysis of budgetary trends, and the preparation of technical inputs to support inter-institutional coordination and management in response to wildfires. As a result, a database validated by official sources was consolidated, and a multitemporal analysis was developed, allowing the identification of investment patterns by type of wildfire, season, responsible entity, equipment used, and personnel involved, as well as the relationship between costs (indexed to 2025 Colombian pesos - COP) and the effectiveness of the response. The total investment amounted to COP $184,509,294,421 (2025), with COP $70,130,410,252 (2025) allocated to aerial resources (79% contributed by the Colombian Aerospace Force) and COP $114,378,884,169 (2025) to ground resources (95% corresponding to the investment by the National Directorate of Firefighters of Colombia). Additionally, recommendations were made regarding the reduction strategies proposed by UNGRD, based on the results obtained and the estimate that for every peso invested in risk reduction, COP $4.1 are saved in suppression efforts. The information gathered represents a significant advancement in understanding key data to improve budget allocation, prioritize actions, and design more sustainable policies aimed at strengthening institutional capacity for wildfire control and prevention.