Análisis del efecto de los patrones de arribo de suministros de ayuda humanitaria sobre los costos de privación usando simulación basada en agentes

Abstract

Last-mile humanitarian relief distribution in post-disaster operations operates in chaotic conditions with high levels of uncertainty, requiring short-term decision-making and response. The performance of last-mile delivery distribution depends on the amount and arrival times of the available relief supplies. Nevertheless, mathematical models for disaster relief distribution usually assume a constant availability of relief supplies. This research analyses the effect of supply arrival patterns over the deprivation cost. To do so, real supply arrival patterns are identified in the 2023 Morocco earthquakes and the 2023 cyclone Daniel in Libya. Those patterns serve as parameters in an agent-based simulation model that tests those patterns' effects on total deprivation cost. Results show an opportunity to reduce the deprivation cost by modifying the supply arrival patterns identified in the two disasters studied.