Evolución e impacto de las centralidades urbanas en Bogotá (1900 – 2023): Un análisis integral del valor del suelo y la planificación urbana

Abstract

Bogotá's urban growth (1900-2023) has reshaped its urban centralities, causing spatial saturation, uneven activity distribution, and social exclusion, aggravating and generating territorial and economic imbalances. This study analyzes this evolution using the Urban Centrality Index (UCI) to assess its impact on land value formation, emphasizing road infrastructure, public services, and socio-economic variables. This study employed a mixed-methods approach, integrating qualitative and quantitative analyses by combining UCI with Bayesian modeling to identify socio-spatial determinants. Geographic information system (GIS) techniques, including Empirical Bayesian Kriging and bivariate spatial association analysis, were applied using ArcGIS Pro and RStudio. The results reveal a transition from a monocentric to a polycentric model, with emerging peripheral centralities linked to infrastructure and services. The analysis identified significant correlations between land value and variables such as accessibility and service density, highlighting spatial segmentation: the northern and northeastern areas show positive centrality-value relationships, while the traditional center exhibits negative dynamics due to gentrification. The developed methodology is effective for urban planning policy design, enabling the identification of priority areas for land value capture and urban densification. This contributes to more equitable and sustainable city planning by addressing historical imbalances through the spatially equitable distribution of urban development benefits in Bogotá.