Modelación del riesgo de inundación en Bogotá D.C. en el periodo del 2007 - 2016

Abstract

In Colombia the natural disasters and his impacts happen every time with major frequency; Bogota, on having been located in the center of the country and having possessed the major quantity of homes, fights indisputably against these disasters. One of the natural phenomena that represents major control in the capital district are floods, becouse they triggered quickly and suddenly, representing a frequent threat; therefore, it is indispensable to study the risk that generates this one, which configuration includes the relation of factors of vulnerability, cost and danger. The present study identifies a series of environmental, social and economic determinants which spatial interaction reverberates in the risk for flood in the localities of Bogota in a discreet period from 2007 to 2016. Spatial dependence and spatial heterogeneity analyses were carries out using spatial autoregressive models - global and geographically weighted regressions – local incorporating previously identified environmental, social and economic predictors. The results show that the factors of vulnerability like the public domiciliary services and water tributaries, cost like the homes and the objects of these and danger like the temperature and precipitation contribute to the risk configuration, being these significant in the regressive models, explaining in certain proportion of risk of flood. It also reveals the importance of the spatial dependence of the risk in Bogota and the need to interpret this not alone risk environmentally if not social and economically, in order to créate localized public policies that consider the factors found in this study.