Modelo de evaluación de sustentabilidad de la estrategia de sustitución de cultivos ilícitos como pilar en la política pública antidrogas de Colombia

Abstract

This research explores the circumstances and intricacies of the illicit crop substitution strategy as a cornerstone of Colombia's public anti-drug policy, through the study, adaptation, and application of an evaluation model that analyzes the sustainability of said strategy from a qualitative approach. Thus, a systematic literature review is conducted regarding public policies aimed at managing the phenomenon of illicit crops during the period from 2011 to 2022, to identify trends, approaches, instruments, and principles upon which they are built. A statistical method of Multiple Correspondence Analysis (MCA) is applied as an intermediate treatment to recognize grouping patterns and factorial planes arising from their relationships, leading to a cluster analysis. Subsequently, based on this relational analysis, a list of variables corresponding to the criteria detected in the systematic review and their statistical examination is consolidated, forming the key input for the adaptation of the sustainability evaluation model based on the Sustainability Assessment of Food and Agriculture Systems (SAFA) tool designed by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), criteria addressed in the Global Drug Policy Index (GDPI) (Bewley-Taylor and Wall, 2021), and the principles of the International Drug Policy Consortium (IDPC) (IDPC, 2016). The adaptation of the evaluation model is validated through a panel of 16 experts, endorsing 75 criteria as relevant assessment aspects within the framework of the illicit crop substitution strategy, leading to the evaluation phase, where the substitution of illicit crops is addressed through the dimensions of Good Governance, Environmental Integrity, Economic Resilience, and Social Well-being. This corresponds to a qualitative analysis that highlights the limited performance of the illicit crop substitution strategy since its implementation, from a sustainability perspective.