Análisis de costos y beneficios económicos de la producción de hidrógeno con energías renovables no convencionales en el contexto de regulaciones colombianas y los compromisos del acuerdo de parís y los objetivos de desarrollo sostenible (2020-2050)

Abstract

This internship analyzes the economic impacts that the introduction of green hydrogen could generate on end users of the Colombian electricity system. The main objective is to evaluate the redistribution of electricity tariffs derived from tax incentives granted to hydrogen producers and to determine their impact on tariff equity and sustainability of the national electricity system. The analysis focuses exclusively on the region of La Guajira, identified as strategic due to its high potential in the generation of non-conventional renewable energies, such as solar and wind, in accordance with the hydrogen roadmap and Scenario 2 of the Indicative Generation Expansion Plan of the UPME (2024-2037).

The ARIMA- Prophet statistical model was used to project end-user electricity costs for the years 2030, 2037 and 2050. Subsequently, tariff variations were analyzed under different scenarios: a 10\% reduction, a 50\% reduction and full compliance with green hydrogen production targets. These variations are directly related to the incentives evaluated, which partially exempt transmission and distribution costs for hydrogen generators, redistributing these costs to other end users.

The results show that, although the incentives encourage the competitiveness of green hydrogen, they generate tariff increases that impact users unequally according to their socioeconomic category. In the lower strata, the increases represent a significant percentage of disposable income, while in the upper strata the impact is marginal. In addition, unit transmission and distribution costs tend to decrease in high penetration scenarios, partially benefiting final consumers. The conclusions indicate that green hydrogen can be economically viable if complemented with regulatory policies that mitigate tariff inequities, such as targeted subsidies and gradual adjustments in incentives.