Guía metodológica para el diseño de sectores productivos en los territorios a partir del modelo prospectivo. Caso de estudio: La Palma y Yacopí Cundinamarca

Abstract

This work academic discusses a proposal for the design of productive units integrated in the territories, framed in a long-term vision of the future that contemplates the use of the conditions of each region. From this exercise a met-hodological tool is achieved that can be applied or complemented in subsequent academic works, in productive environments and in public administration. It is based on the theoretical bases of strategic prospective, on analysis of technological surveillance, fundamentals of the extended value chain processes and the thematic axes that are raised in development plans promoted by Cepal and the FMI. A theoretical review of the conceptual bases is carried out, to then pre-sent a methodological proposal that was complemented by experts on the subject and applied as a case study in the municipalities of La Palma and Yacopí in Cundinamarca, presenting simulation of results. The results show how to formulate a future scenario in the territories based on the prospective model, how to design productive systems based on the selected future scenario and how to design the necessary strategies, evidencing the application in the case study, showing the simulated results through of system dynamics. The simulated results allow to conclude that the design of productive sectors conceived from a futu-re-vision scenario manages to integrate a virtuous ecosystem in which the productive unit finds a space of bet-ter growth and development opportunities, providing alternatives that stimulate to the nation in development and survival of business organizations as axes of economic growth of the territories.