Evaluación del efecto del cambio climático en la oferta hídrica superficial del departamento de Cundinamarca y el Distrito Capital

Abstract

The climate participates in the provision of energy and water to ecosystems and living beings. Its natural dynamics grant particular characteristics to the different portions of the Earth, some more or less habitable than others for man. Any change in the climatic conditions of a particular area necessarily entails changes in ecosystems, in river flows, in increased frequencies of landslides, droughts or floods, in the relationships between living beings and alterations in daily activities. of the man. Taking into account the above, a conceptual and methodological framework is proposed that allows identifying the current climatic conditions of the department of Cundinamarca and its effects on the territory in the face of future changes (climate change scenarios). To develop such a proposal, the climate has been represented with the average annual temperature and the average annual precipitation for the reference period 1981-2010. Subsequently, spatial models of the relationship between climate and runoff and climate and aridity conditions were carried out. These models were validated through the comparison of the modeled and observed values, which were obtained from secondary observed information. Using IDW interpolation to carry out the modeling, the result was spatial information with a distance between points of 900 meters applicable to the entire department. After validating the models for the reference period, the climate values ​​were modified with the information from the RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0 scenarios of the Third Climate Change Communication, applicable for the period 2011-2040. As a result of this research, twelve modeling models were obtained that show the changes in temperature, precipitation, runoff and aridity index caused by the climate modifications proposed in each of the scenarios. Such changes are evident when comparing the climate modeling of the reference period with each modeling resulting from the scenarios. Subsequently, it was possible to recognize that climate modifications, due to anthropic effects in each RCP scenario, would cause effects on the availability of water resources in the department. Some of these effects could cause disappearance or serious damage to the paramos, appearance of new ecosystems (associated with excess precipitation and/or increases in temperature), increases in the frequency of floods, mass removal phenomena, increases in areas susceptible to fires, and in general decrease in the sustainability of the department. Finally, the factors that favor climate change are identified and based on these, some adaptation proposals for the Department and the Capital are presented.