Modelación espacial del riesgo de desastres naturales en Colombia 2010-2016

Abstract

Risk is a latent problem in the colombian territory due to the existence of natural phenomena that are externalized as a result of geological, geomorphological, hydrological and climatic diversity. These conditions come to represent both social and economic threats. It should be added that these natural phenomena are caused not only by the physical and natural conditions of the territory but also by human activities that lead to imbalances in the environment and by the scarcity of support tools to counteract the risk.In this project, a spatial modeling of the risk of hydrometeorological phenomena was carried out using information from the National Planning Department and the National Unit for the Management of Natural Risks, taking into account variables that involve the affected population and the control mechanisms that each municipality of Colombia has in case of an emergency. Also, were used statistics such as the moran index, geary and getis & Ord to determine a spatial distribution pattern of the response variable and see the spatial autocorrelation that exists with the independent variables, as well as using methods such as impacts analysis and Geographically Weighted Regression, which show how these variables behave in a regressor model.