Modelación dinámica y estrategias para el manejo sustentable de la especie invasora : Egeria densa en el Embalse del Neusa – Cogua, Cundinamarca

Abstract

The current state and the alterations around the reservoirs within the jurisdiction of the territory of Cundinamarca (Colombia) due to the spread of invasive aquatic species, motivate the use of tools and instruments as a basis for the generation of strategies aimed at the recovery and preservation of the aquatic ecosystems. The results of the generation of a dynamic simulation model of the hydrological, trophic and behavioral conditions of phosphorus in the Neusa reservoir in Cogua - Cundinamarca are presented, and its relationship with the prospective behavior of the aquatic species Egeria densa, in scenarios maximum and minimum precipitation, and strategies for the management and use of the species in accordance with sustainable development and adequate environmental management. Three (3) sub-models were formulated to describe and explain the functionality of the reservoir and the problems identified. The first model described the hydrological behavior, the second explained the trophic state and the third allowed to carry out a predictive analysis preceding the useful life of the system and the generation of strategies for the adequate management of the Elodea in the reservoir. The results demonstrated a direct relationship between the pluviometric dynamics of the afferent basin, the inflow - outflow flows and the hydrological behavior of the reservoir. Similarly, it was possible to determine the trophic state of the reservoir at different time scales and confirm its trend of change according to the hydraulic retention times, which in turn delimit the phosphorus concentration processes in the reservoir. In addition, it was possible to confirm the possible loss of 50% of the water mirror due to Elodea coverage for the year 2042 ± 2 years and finally the direct incidence of phosphorus in the growth of the species and how its biomass reduces the water mirror in the prospective analysis of the reservoir, which keeps the risk of changing its trophic state latent in case of not intervening to control the Elodea.