Modelado espacial hidrogeológico para determinar índices de calidad y vulnerabilidad de las aguas subterráneas en la zona centro de Boyacá

Abstract

In the present study, traditional and modern spatial prediction techniques are applied in order to model the hydrogeological system of the central zone of the department of Boyacá, Colombia .The aim is determine the quality of groundwater for supplying the population for use for human consumption and for irrigation of plantations. In the process, spatial predictions were made based on frequentist methods (kriging - cokriging) and Bayesian methods (SPDE R - INLA). Bayesian methods are based on the determination of an adequate a priori distribution, which provides sufficient prior knowledge in the construction of the posterior distribution of the spatial phenomenon to approach the reality of the territory through the model. Then, a comparison was made using statistical tests (MAE, RMSE, CRPS and Diebold-Mariano) to determine the goodness of fit, advantages and disadvantages of the applied methods. The interest in this study is based on the implementation of a more robust and computationally efficient solution, particularly for hydrogeological information and thus adequately manage water resources in the region. An evaluation of the vulnerability of the aquifers was also made by applying the DRASTIC method, which is obtained by analyzing the variables Depth (D), Net Recharge (R), Geology (A), Soil (S), Topography (T), Impact of the vadose zone (I) and Hydraulic conductivity (C).