Asociación entre la temperatura ambiental y temperatura superficial del mar sobre la aparición de casos de ciguatera en el departamento de San Andrés y Providencia

Abstract

The Ciguatera impact the sector health and sector economic, product of significant morbidity, loss of work days, days of hospitalization and in some cases death; It also affects the economy of the Caribbean countries, who mostly depend on fishing and tourism. Climate-induced changes have been attributed to be the main drivers of the stimulation, distribution and intensification of dinoflagellates that cause of ciguatera. This study aimed to estimate the association between temperature (mean, absolute minimum, maximum absolute, minimum average, average maximum and average sea surface temperature) over the emergence of cases of ciguatera in San Andrés and Providencia. Initially was a descriptive analysis of the cases and outbreaks reported to the public health surveillance system compatible, with the case definition established in Protocol of monitoring of poisoning by toxins from marine algae and issues for the Department were. Analysis of variance and Covariance (95% confidence interval) to identify associations between outbreaks, incidents and different temperatures. Additionally the coefficient of Pearson correlation between two time series was determined (temperature vs. outbreaks and temperatures vs. incidents) and the confidence interval of 95% with Bootstrap for each. 101 cases, 21 outbreaks and 14 cases were identified. The increased frequency of outbreaks was produced by barracuda and jurel. 53% of the cases belonged to the male sex, the age group most affected was 30 to 44 years; the period of incubation between 30 minutes and 24 hours. Homes and restaurants were the places of occurrence of cases. Established an annual average incidence of 17.4 cases of ciguatera poisoning per 100 000 inhabitants. In ANOVA we identified no significant differences between monthly and annual averages of outbreaks or cases of ciguatera poisoning incident. For the ANACOVA temperatures are found significant for outbreaks environmental maximum absolute (p = 0.0254) and the environmental absolute minimum two months of delay (p = 0.0190). For the incidents was found significant the half with two months of delay sea surface temperature (p = 0.0387). Bootstrap analysis for outbreaks the absolute maximum ambient temperature, which shows a correlation of 0.335 found significant (95% CI: 0.063-0.560) and for incident analysis found significant the average maximum temperature, which shows a correlation of 0.181 (95% CI: - 0.181-0.474). This type of analysis with other variables that could influence the presence of cases is recommended.