Series de tiempo para monitorear la variabilidad climática en el mar Caribe mediante modelo vectorial autorregresivo

Abstract

Colombia, being a country with maritime territory on the Caribbean sea and tropical geographical position, has been vulnerable to the possible presence of climatic variability in the meteorological and oceanographic ciclycal, altering the climatological normals that make up the ocean - atmosphere equilibrium system and thus, they directly affect the socioeconomic dynamics of the continental and maritime territory. With the objective of monitoring climatic variability in the Colombian Caribbean sea and taking Cartagena city as a point of sampling given its privileged geographical location, we adjust an autoregressive vectorial model -VAR, using climatological observations (Humidity of the air, air temperature, barometric pressure, intensity of wind and wind speed) and oceanographic observations (Sea Level RLS) measured between may 2015 and august 2018 in the meteorological and oceanographic station CIOH - Cartagena of SMPOMM of DIMAR Institute. To achieve the objective, 6 time series with the average values per month of the climatic variables previously associated were structured in an integral manner, as the main source for the VAR modeling. The statistical monitoring of the time series showed that in the period of study there were no weather abnormality events associated with. El niño - La niña phenomenal, without taking into account the innate presence of seasonality in each of the series drawn due to the annual climatic times. The results of the project show that after correctly validating the statistical tests to corroborate the goodness of fit of the model, the impulse response functions structured in an eventual scenario of climatic variability were analyzed where it is concluded that if there is a record or abnormal event ( shock / impulse) of some study variable at a given time on a monthly scale, sea level, as the main monitoring variable, it would take between 9 and 12 months on average to return to its climatological normality, that is, its equilibrium point in the ocean-atmosphere interaction system.