Usando muestreador de Gibbs para estimar la altura máxima que puede alcanzar la Subcuenca Media del Río Garagoa

Abstract

The main objective of this paper is to implement a system for adjusting the hydrological model, using time series applied to a hydrological model, allowing learning and adjusting parameters to obtain optimal models that make predictions of River Heights Garagoa in critical periods of flooding. Time series analysis that allows for the variables and factors that determine the hydrometric heights at critical periods of flooding in the city of currents is performed. Subsequently it presents a forecast short-term periods of flooding, which predicts hydrometric heights. It ends with a medium-term forecast for periods of flooding, of hydrometric heights. The interest of this project lies in its application to flood forecasting currents, which currently does not have a flood forecasting system of Garagoa river in government agencies, whereby the application of that work would be of great importance for the city for better flood forecasting river, causing losses of great importance in the economy of the region. Also, the underlying problem is common to many other situations where you could apply the results of the realization of this report, as are the other municipalities located on the banks of the Garagoa river.