Determinación de áreas óptimas a partir de la nubosidad y topografía como factores determinantes para la generación de energía solar en el de partamento de Nariño

Abstract

Solar energy production is a technical, environmental, and economic alternative for solving energy coverage problems in remote areas of Colombia. The department of Nariño is a critical case, as there are at least 600 Non-Interconnected Zones (NIZs) there, i.e., localities not connected to the National Interconnected System (SIN). This implies a real loss due to the lack of electricity service, which impedes the social and productive development of these localities (Vivas, 2024). Added to this are the high costs of electricity service, which can reach values close to $785.26 per kWh, and the existing energy inequity, which reflects an economic burden on households (Barrera, 2022). In response to this problem, renewable energy generation systems are emerging as sustainable solutions. Among these, solar photovoltaic energy stands out for its potential for implementation in rural and isolated areas, thanks to the reduction in technological costs, the expansion of systems, and its low environmental impact. This means greater utilization and a direct contribution to climate change mitigation, as it reduces dependence on fossil fuels and lowers greenhouse gas emissions (Solmic, 2024; UPME, 2024). However, the viability of solar projects depends largely on local environmental and geographic conditions. Among these most influential factors are cloudiness and topography. In fact, cloudiness is a critical variable, as it reduces incidents of solar radiation through reflection, scattering, and absorption. These phenomena vary according to cloud thickness and density. This direct reduction in radiation affects the performance of solar panels, especially in mountainous and humid regions such as southern Colombia (Contreras, 2016; SolarGIS, 2024). Likewise, topography influences the efficiency of photovoltaic systems, as it influences parameters such as land orientation and slope, as well as shadow projection, all of which are crucial for optimal solar radiation capture (Báez & Gómez, 2020). Therefore, the following research aims to determine the optimal areas for the development of solar projects in the department of Nariño, integrating the spatial analysis of two main variables: cloud cover and topography (slope and aspect). This combination allows for the identification of areas with high solar generation potential that are, in turn, technically viable from the perspective of infrastructure installation. The methodology initially includes a specialized literature review on solar energy and geospatial analysis, followed by the collection of climatic (cloud cover) and topographic (slope and aspect derived from digital elevation models) data. Solar radiation data (PVOUT) provided by the SolarGIS platform will then be used. Information on the national road network from the National Road Institute (INVIAS) will be integrated (2024) to assess the accessibility of the identified areas. After processing this data using a Geographic Information System (GIS), a multi-criteria model will be applied, allowing the territory to be classified into three suitability levels: high, medium, and low. Finally, the analysis will identify the areas with the greatest potential for implementing solar projects in the department, providing technical input for territorial energy planning, especially within the framework of rural electrification and energy transition programs in the ZNI. These results will be accompanied by thematic maps, classification tables, and specific recommendations to facilitate decision-making by government entities, non-governmental organizations, and energy sector stakeholders.