Propuesta metodológica para la gestión del riesgo por fenómenos meteorológicos a través del análisis de valores extremos de precipitación en la región del Medio Magdalena.

Abstract

We established a methodology that includes a rainfall time series statistical analysis inside the planning tools of meteorological risk management on local and regional level using actions cards for various possible scenarios of rainfall values with return periods 2, 5, 10, 20, 50, 100. These return periods were calculated with the modeling of the monthly maximum value of each station on the studied region: Medio Magdalena Climatic Region. Finally, these values were compared with El Nino y La Nina phenomena ocurrence in February, May and October; February month was detected with a high average value of precipitation perturbation linked to La Niña events and May and October were analized because they are seasonal climatological months with high values of precipitation at study zone.