Determinación de las zonas de vulnerabilidad por riesgo volcánico en la subregión del Magdalena Caldense debido al volcán "El Escondido"

Abstract

Volcanic activity has been a fundamental component for understanding the geology of the planet, modeling landscapes and also, sometimes, threatening human populations. In Colombia, a country with a rich geological history and 23 active volcanoes, the need to understand and predict these phenomena is especially important. This study was focused on the volcano "El Escondido", located in the Magdalena Caldense sub-region, whose geological history "passed unnoticed" until 2014, when it was discovered. Despite its current inactive state, the risk associated with a possible eruption and its impact on nearby populations requires an analysis of the effects it might have on the four municipalities that conform this subregion. The objective of this monography was to determine the areas of vulnerability for volcanic risk in the Magdalena Caldense sub-region, due to the "El Escondido" volcano through a multidisciplinary approach following the methodology established in the "Manual for the Evaluation of Risks Originated by Natural Phenomena" developed by the National Center for Estimation, Prevention and Reduction of Disaster Risk - CENEPRED, where variables that contribute to the level of risk were examined, including an examination of the geological characteristics of the volcano, topography and geomorphology of the region, as well as the geological characteristics of the volcano, Prevention and Reduction of Disaster Risk - CENEPRED, where the variables that contribute to the level of risk were examined, including an examination of the geological characteristics of the volcano, the topography and geomorphology of the region, as well as the population density in the potentially affected areas, socioeconomic criteria that characterize the municipalities and their environmental conditions. Additionally, in order to enhance the risk evaluation, the following modeling was performed: Hysplit and Laharz_py, where the first modeling allowed simulating the trajectories that air paths would take to determine how far and in which direction it will travel in a hypothetical case of ash, lapilli and volcanic gas emission, and the second modeling, simulated the areas that will probably be flooded by hypothetical events of massive flow, for the specific case of lahars. This modeling allowed us to determine the volcanic hazard and, with it, to delimit the level of vulnerability of the population exposed to this hazard. Finally, this work was focused on the volcanic hazards in Colombia. By focusing on "El Escondido", the necessary data were compiled to show the challenges that volcanoes represent for the communities that live in their shadows and that through the results of the project, actions can be taken to mitigate the risk in the subregion.