Efectos del cambio climático en la distribución del género Pronophila Doubleday (Satyrinae, Pronophilina) en bosques andinos en Colombia

Abstract

The genus Pronophila Doubleday [1849] belongs to the Pronophilina subtribe (Nymphalidae: Satyrinae), and it is distributed from northwestern Argentina (Tucumán) to the extreme north of Colombia (Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta) and northeastern Venezuela (Turimiquire), with only one representative in the mountains of Central America (P. timanthes). Normally, Pronophila species inhabit montane forests between 1000-3000 meters above sea level, registering the maximum diversity around 2000-2400 meters above sea level. For Colombia, an endemic species of the Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta (P. juliani) is registered. However, the biology of the genus has been little studied. Therefore, many characteristics of its natural history are still unknown. In addition, due to the different disturbance processes caused by the Anthropocene (global warming, mining, urbanization, livestock, intensive agriculture, etc.), has generated a loss of habitat in many species, both animal and plant, which has affected the patterns of distribution and diversity of the different taxa, as is the case of the species that make up the genus Pronophila in the country, since the Andean region has been one of the areas most affected by these anthropic activities in recent decades. For this reason, the objective of the present study was to generate a potential distribution model for Pronophila species in the country, under various climate change scenarios for the years 2050 and 2070, and to make a comparison with a recent distribution model, to be able to assess the effect of climate change on the distribution of the genus Pronophila. The projection of the different models was carried out in the R software, using the MaxEnt algorithm. The Jackknife test was used to determine the bioclimatic variables that influenced the results. Once the maps of the recent and future modeling were obtained for each of the species, using the ArcGis software, the potential distribution area of the Lepidoptera was compared. The results show that the 4 species subjected to modeling will experience reductions in their potential distribution areas throughout the years 2050 and 2070 and the bioclimatic variables associated with temperature had a greater influence on the models. This made it possible to establish general patterns of distribution, which allow prioritizing conservation strategies that mitigate population declines and local extinctions predicted by anthropogenic climate change in butterflies associated with mountain ecosystems.