Cálculo del índice de vulnerabilidad hídrica en la Cuenca del Río Chicamocha en los Departamentos Boyacá-Santander en escenarios de cambio climático

Abstract

The water vulnerability index was calculated for the Chicamocha River watershed in climate change scenarios at the municipal level, according to the methodology established in the National Water Study, with the purpose of supporting the construction of strategic guidelines for territorial environmental management in accordance with the National Policy for the Integrated Management of Water Resources (PNGIRH). For this, two time periods were analyzed, one of reference between the years 1981-2010 and the second, a multiscenario of climate change RCP called thus, because it includes the average of the four climatic scenarios RCP for the years 2041-2070. The methodology consisted of developing and analyzing nine indexes, among which are the aridity index, water vulnerability index, water use index, offer index (OHTS and OHTD), calculation of the environmental flow, water regulation index, water stress and per capita availability index. The results show that for the prospective period 58% of the municipalities of the basin will present water vulnerability, the majority located in the upper basin, this means that the basin presents a fragile water system when maintaining the supply for the supply of water and due to various threats or climatic phenomena such as the El Niño phenomenon, the risk of water shortages may increase.