Evaluación temporal del método número de curva de escorrentía en una hoya hidrográfica sub-urbana a través de modelos ARIMA : estudio de caso Quebrada La Vieja (Bogotá D.C., Colombia)

Abstract

Global Changes in the approach of the study of environmental variables have made time series analysis become one of the main tools of modern science, allowing scientist to propose new models for environmental simulation and also to evaluate previously developed. This thesis focuses on assessing the temporal structure fit of Runoff Curve Number Method proposed by the Soil Conservation Service in the sub - urban watershed Quebrada La Vieja from April 8, 2010 and the December 31, 2014. ARIMA models were used to perform the analysis; besides the Kolmogorov- Smirnov goodness of fit test, and different statistical that let us analyze and compare the time series of flow calculated with the Curve Number Method (CN) and the one of flows measured by the hydrometric station Ventana Captación bellowing to the Water and Sewerage Company of Bogotá ( EAAB - ESP) . The results suggested that the Curve Number Method tends to overestimate the rate of peak and average daily flows of the watershed. Additionally, it was shown that these flow regimes present a similar temporal behavior, but it does not fit to the temporal structure of the average daily flows observed in the upper part of the watershed Quebrada La Vieja.