Distribución potencial de Lepidópteros (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae), bajo tres escenarios de cambio climático y un modelo de perturbación antropogénico en Colombia

Abstract

Butterflies are considered to be bioindicators of the degree of disturbance of a habitat. Among the causes that generate alterations in the environment, are human activities, which inevitably lead to the current alteration of ecosystems. In addition, the problem of climate change due to the increase in CO2 emissions causes the greenhouse effect, affecting the distribution patterns and diversity of the species. Consequently, it is affirmed that the increase of anthropogenic activities generates changes in the climatic variables, which as a whole alter the potential distribution of a species. Therefore, in this study, the potential distribution area of lepidoptera was evaluated based on modeling with Maxent and the use of GIS. The studied species were Corades chelonis chelonis, Corades chelonis rectilinear, Corades medeba columbina, Lymanopoda albocincta albocincta, Lymanopoda labda labda, Manerebia germaniae germaniae and Pronophila unifasciata antioquiana, to which they were modeled for the current year and for the year 2070 under three scenarios of climate change and anthropogenic models. It was found that 6 species decrease their potential distribution due to climatic variables, and all species were affected by the anthropogenic model. The variables of greatest influence in the models were temperature and urbanization. Finally, priority areas for the conservation of lepidoptera were defined, always in search of the protection of the ecosystems and the Colombian diversity.