Modelación dinámica de captura de carbono en sistemas fluviales urbanos - Caso: Ronda del Río Arzobispo, Bogotá D.C., 2012 – 2022

Abstract

This research focused on the identification, definition, and interpretation of data, variables, and parameters upon which a dynamic model was developed. This model estimates the capture of CO2, its derivatives, and its behavior over an eleven-year period, based on the vegetation cover that develops in a section of the riparian zone of the Arzobispo River, located in the city of Bogotá D.C., Colombia. With this, the study sought to address the uncertainty regarding CO2 capture present in other studies, which until now had only considered the structures and dynamics of forests and other natural areas, but not specifically those corresponding to the riverbanks of urban rivers. The model was developed under a mixed methodological approach, utilizing the Vensim PLE Plus® simulation software and the Monte Carlo multivariate sensitivity analysis tool. The results revealed that, in a 6,2 km river section with an estimated population of 19.259 trees of different species and age classes dispersed there, 774,75 tCO2 are captured annually, and a total of 8.522,23 tCO2 over the observed period, approximately. Likewise, prospective scenarios were simulated and analyzed, demonstrating that by recovering and restoring the riverbank area to reach its normal conditions, the provision of ecosystem services is maximized, along with the potential to generate the necessary resources for its conservation and sustainable management. This constitutes a fundamental aspect in facing the challenges of urban rivers within the framework of sustainable development.