Análisis multitemporal mediante modelos ARIMA de la calidad del agua en la potabilizadora “Francisco Wiesner” y el embalse “San Rafael” (Bogotá D.C., Colombia)

Abstract

Secure the quality of drinking water is essential for any treatment system, especially in a megacity like Bogotá, for this reason, ARIMA models were developed that allow predicting the temporal behavior of the water quality of the San Rafael reservoir and the Francisco Wiesner drinking water treatment plant. For this purpose, three metering stations were selected in the Chingaza system, these were: Río Teusacá–Salitre, embalse San Rafael y suministrada CDC. The water quality indicator parameters most pertinent to the research were chosen, and through of statistical treatment, missing data from the daily time series were completed between the years 2008 2015. To generate the ARIMA models, in three time scales (Daily, weekly moving average and monthly moving average), the IBM-SPSS software and its expert modeler tool were used; due to the fact that the values of the relevant statistics of the models did not comply with the ranges suggested in the literature consulted, it was decided to use the Box-Jenkins iterative process adapted by Pérez (2005) to estimate more adjusted models. A correlation was made between the indicator parameters of the selected stations, detecting differential characteristics in each of the stations. In the same way, the costs and quantities of the chemical products used in the water treatment plant were analyzed, verifying the direct relationship between the variation of water quality characteristics and the use of said products. Additionally, the calculation of the IRCA and the analysis of the values that violated the national regulations were made, evidencing an optimum quality of the water resource that is distributed to the beneficiaries of the water treatment system. Finally, the logical framework approach was used to formulate sustainable strategies that optimize the operation of the Francisco Wiesner water treatment plant and ensure the water quality for Bogotá.