Modelo de distribución del riesgo de Zika bajo escenarios de cambio climático para Cundinamarca (Colombia)

Abstract

Starting from the approach that maintains that the climate and the exposure of the socioeconomic systems affect human health, a conceptual and methodological framework is proposed to identify the potential impact of possible future social and climatic conditions (climate change scenarios) on the distribution of the Zika virus in the department of Cundinamarca. From a bibliographic analysis, variables and factors were detected, with which the general model was elaborated. Subsequently, it was applied in a preliminary way, with climate information in the reference period 1950-2000 (threat) and data on the coverage of the aqueduct, sewerage, and population density (vulnerability) for 2018. With this, a spatial risk of the current distribution of the virus model was generated, which was validated by contrasting with the real cases identified up to epidemiological week 52 of 2018. Then, the climatic conditions were modified using the scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 of the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC for the year 2050, with the projection for the period between 2018-2050, which made it possible to deduce that climate change together with the conditions of vulnerability, project important transformations in relation to the spatial distribution of the Zika virus.

Finally, in addition to demonstrating the capacity of climate change and vulnerabilities to generate transformations in the territory; and to raise awareness and information on the effects of this phenomenon in the medium term, a proposal for methodological guidelines was generated that will allow the application and validation of the model in future studies, which will provide a solid support for the comprehensive management of the risk due to Zika virus, institutionally.