Potencial de Producción de Bioetanol a partir de Caña Panelera: Dinámica entre Contaminación, Seguridad Alimentaria y Uso del Suelo
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Universidad Distrital Francisco José de Caldas
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La generación de combustibles a partir de productos agrícolasllamados agro-combustibles o biocombustibles ha sidoimpulsada recientemente como alternativa a los altos preciosdel petróleo y la contaminación debida al dióxido de carbono.Debido a que las materias primas usadas para la obtención debioetanol o biodiesel son empleados original y primordialmenteen la producción de alimentación humana, esta alternativa planteaun dilema para los productores frente al uso del suelo, enespecial al sopesar los precios pagados por el sector energéticocontra los del sector alimentario.La caña panelera es una de las materias primas con mayorrendimiento para la producción de bioetanol y es de especialrelevancia para Colombia, siendo este país el segundo productorde panela en el mundo después de la India y el mayorconsumidor per cápita del mundo (37,4 Kg/Hab). El estudioque presentamos a continuación está enfocado en analizar ladinámica de la producción de bioetanol a partir de caña panelera,siguiendo un enfoque prospectivo, a partir de la dinámica generadapor el uso del suelo, la contaminación y la seguridadalimentaria, que contrasta con investigaciones previas realizadasdesde la perspectiva de incentivos en la cadena de suministrode agro-combustibles. El artículo presenta la caracterización de la caña panelera enColombia, los proyectos vigentes y en desarrollo para la producciónde agro-combustibles en Colombia, la influencia delprecio de petróleo en azúcar y panela, igualmente la producciónde agro-combustible a partir de caña. Los datos históricosson tratados con estadística multivariada y redes neuronales con el fin de predecir el comportamiento futuro en la producción de caña panelera. Ladinámica de la cadena frente a la problemática es estudiada a partir de la identificación defactores y variables relevantes y su diagrama causal.
As a solution to both oil high prices and pollution, grown-product fuel-generation (socalled biofuels) policies and projects have been promoted worldwide. Because raw materials involved in Bioethanol-and-Biodiesel making are used for human-consumption food production, producers face dichotomy regarding ground use, especially due to the prices paid to producers by either the energy or the food-production sector.Although the bio-fuel supply-chain dynamics have been studied from an incentives viewpoint [37], an understanding of the supply-chain prospective is necessary based on the dynamics of three aspects, namely ground use, pollution and food safety.The Panela cane is one of the raw materials with the best performance for Bioethanol production. Because Colombia is the highest per-capita Panela consumer (37,4 Kg/ Inhab) and the second producer in the world (after India), this article analyzes Bioethanol production dynamics based on Panela cane.Throughout the present article four aspects are discussed, namely Colombian Panela cane characterization, Colombian bio-fuel production current-projects development, oilprice influence on both Panela and sugar prices, and finally Panela cane bio-ethanol production.Historical data are forecasted through multivariate statistics and neural networks with the purpose of predicting future behavior within Panela cane production.In the context of the aforementioned dichotomy, Panela cane chain dynamics are studied based on the identification of both factors and variables, which are presented through a causal diagram
As a solution to both oil high prices and pollution, grown-product fuel-generation (socalled biofuels) policies and projects have been promoted worldwide. Because raw materials involved in Bioethanol-and-Biodiesel making are used for human-consumption food production, producers face dichotomy regarding ground use, especially due to the prices paid to producers by either the energy or the food-production sector.Although the bio-fuel supply-chain dynamics have been studied from an incentives viewpoint [37], an understanding of the supply-chain prospective is necessary based on the dynamics of three aspects, namely ground use, pollution and food safety.The Panela cane is one of the raw materials with the best performance for Bioethanol production. Because Colombia is the highest per-capita Panela consumer (37,4 Kg/ Inhab) and the second producer in the world (after India), this article analyzes Bioethanol production dynamics based on Panela cane.Throughout the present article four aspects are discussed, namely Colombian Panela cane characterization, Colombian bio-fuel production current-projects development, oilprice influence on both Panela and sugar prices, and finally Panela cane bio-ethanol production.Historical data are forecasted through multivariate statistics and neural networks with the purpose of predicting future behavior within Panela cane production.In the context of the aforementioned dichotomy, Panela cane chain dynamics are studied based on the identification of both factors and variables, which are presented through a causal diagram
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Bio-fuel, Bioethanol, Panela cane, multivariate statistics, neural networks, dynamic system., Biocombustibles, Bioetanol, Caña Panelera, Dinámica de Sistemas, Redes Neuronales