Análisis dinámico del aviturismo bajo la incidencia del Covid-19 en la Región del Tequendama (Cundinamarca/Colombia)

Abstract

In order to analyze the dynamics of the socio-ecological system of avitourism in the context of a pandemic in the Tequendama Region, a mixed-domain approach was applied to identify, assess, and understand the complex transformations that are occurring in the socio-ecological system. For this purpose, the bird tourism management indicators were detected, the qualitative measurement of the indicators was made based on the perceptions of the bird tourism actors, and finally the dynamic modeling was carried out to evaluate the incidence of Covid-19 in two scenarios. temporarily raised between the period 2000-2030. Regarding the first two objectives, the Atlas.ti tool was used as software for computer-assisted qualitative data analysis, and for dynamic simulation, the VenSim program and the Montecarlo method were used for validation. The results detected 27 indicators associated with the sustainable management of bird tourism, of which 42% were diagnosed by the bird tourism actors at an acceptable level, and in the face of dynamic modeling it is concluded that the incidence of Covid-19 is low in management. of birdwatching in the Tequendama Region, given that by 2030, in the most pessimistic scenario with the incidence of Covid-19 at 100%, the demand for the service continues to increase by 10 birdwatchers/year, while in the scenario with the absence of a pandemic, the demand for the service could increase more than 100% by 2030, which represents around 685 birdwatchers/year for the Tequendama Region. At a multidimensional level, the social and ecological incidence is more complex, so suggestions are made for the strengthening of tourism management.