Acople de un modelo hidrológico y un modelo de contenido de fósforo, para estimar el estado trófico en cuerpos de agua lénticos

Abstract

This research project aims to enhance and expand our understanding of the dynamics of lentic water bodies, to establish effective conservation strategies, and promote the sustainable use of the ecosystem services they provide. This study simulates the accumulated water volume, total phosphorus (TP) content, and the trophic state classification of Lake Tota from 1986 to 1996. The study's development was based on three main objectives. The first objective was to conduct a literature review on the integration of hydrological models and phosphorus content models for lentic water bodies. This review enabled the determination of the importance of order and the identification of variables to be used in the present study. The second chapter focused on establishing the causal model, the Forrester model, and the coupling between the hydrological model and the phosphorus content model. Finally, the third chapter focused on the calibration, validation, simulation, sensitivity analysis, and statistical testing of the developed model, utilizing climatological, hydrological, and water quality data from Lake Tota for the period 1986-1996. The study concludes with the formulation of sustainability-based strategies for controlling the trophic state of this water body. Among the most notable findings, it was discovered that the initial volume of Lake Tota in January 1986 was 1,850.76 million m³, reaching its maximum in November 1987 at 1,944.99 million m³, and its lowest level in March 1992 at 1,755.99 million m³. It is also important to note that the TP content in the lake peaked in December 1986 at 116.98 tons and reached its lowest level in April 1996 at 64.29 tons. Finally, based on the modeled TP concentration, it was determined that the lake was in the eutrophic category.