Modelo de regulación para agua potable en horizontes de largo plazo

Abstract

Worldwide, the aqueduct regulation for the public utility service is based on the company's supplies costs (especially for the future demand), these are indicators to calculate materials and production supplies costs either for the goods and for the service itself. Efficiency, financial and budget competence depend to a large extent on the measurements and determined plans accuracy for a market setting. Financial competence focuses on plans costs and discount rates that remunerate investments. Meeting these demands and regional socioeconomic distortions within a scientific research project, a model was proposed for the drinking water regulation sector in unstable balance situations that would consider solidarity criteria and it would also guide the prioritization of environmental investments. Two (2) possible forecasting tools were proposed from 2006 to 2040 in Bogotá city as a model: The first (1), neural networks and the second (2), time series, here only the second one generated outcomes to validate, so that: 1 and 2 strata (Lowest social population levels in a Colombian economic scale) show a demand growth, while 3, 4, 5, 6 strata (Highest social levels in a Colombian economic scale) and commercial areas tend to decrease in their consumption.