Modelo dinámico para evaluar la resiliencia socioecológica en la laguna de Fúquene frente al ensamble entre dos especies invasoras

Abstract

The presence of two invasive species such as Eichhornia crassipes and Procambarus clarkii on the water bodies of greatest interest and importance at an ecological level makes it necessary to carry out research aimed at identifying the impacts of these species at an ecological, social and economic level, and its impact on the interrelationships constituted by communities and ecosystems due to the transformations experienced in complex systems such as the one present in the Fúquene lagoon, Colombia. Therefore, the results corresponding to the proposed dynamic simulation model are presented to evaluate the socio-ecological resilience of the Fúquene lagoon from the presence of two invasive species, from a sustainable development and environmental management approach. Initially, a bibliographic review was carried out to recognize the dimensions, application approaches and variables used for the formulation of models that evaluate the socio-ecological resilience and the impacts caused by the species. Subsequently, a series of indicators and indices were defined and applied from the recognition of the different social perceptions regarding the presence of both species, their impacts and the transformation of the system within a specific period (1990-2050). Finally, with the identification of the required variables and obtaining the values for each indicator / index, we proceed to the definition of a dynamic simulation model in charge of evaluating the level of socio-ecological resilience in the lagoon, which results in a value of 63.1 for the year 2020; However, it is observed that the value of socio-ecological resilience decreases considerably from 100 (initial value, 1990) to reach values close to 0 (year 2036), due to the advanced state of the problems experienced in the lagoon, in addition to the direct incidence invasive species, and the ineffectiveness of the control, monitoring, and intervention processes carried out so far.