Efecto de factores socioeconómicos en la venta de vivienda nueva en bogotá: análisis desde un modelo panel espacial para el período 2012 – 2019

Abstract

The present analysis seeks to describe the sale of new housing according to different socioeconomic factors over time, in the urban localities of Bogotá from 2012 to 2019. This approach is based on the fact that, despite the importance of housing dynamics in a region's social, economic and political dimensions, it is not generally studied in this area. It is generally treated as a tradable good, of which only its commercial and fiscal value stand out. Spatial statistics provide a multidisciplinary field from which the study of residential property can be approached, the element that has inherent spatial and temporal dependence on its nature (fixed location and durability). The document presents different analyses from cross-sectional regressive models that demonstrate the spatial relationship between the sale of new housing with the most basic socioeconomic indicators such as population, coverage of public services, and school attendance, among others. Then, the spatial panel model is estimated, where the temporal and spatial effects on the phenomenon studied are considered. The results show that the spatial and socioeconomic dynamics of a region affect the sale of new houses within it, for this study case the most influential activities were those related to citizen security, population groups, education, public services, and assessment. This is probably the first study of this kind in Colombia and is presented as a precedent to contemplate new lines of research, as well as being a pioneer in space-time analysis related to housing dynamics at the international level.