Modelo dinámico para evaluar la resiliencia socioecológica en la Laguna de Fúquene frente al ensamble entre dos especies invasoras

Abstract

The presence of two invasive species such as Eichhornia crassipes and Procambarus clarkii on water bodies of major ecological interest and importance makes necessary the development of research oriented to identify the impacts of these species at the ecological, social and economic levels, and their incidence on the interrelationships constituted by communities and ecosystems due to the transformations experienced in complex systems such as the one present in the Fúquene lagoon, Colombia. Therefore, the results corresponding to the dynamic simulation model proposed to evaluate the socioecological resilience of the Fúquene lagoon from the presence of two invasive species, from a sustainable development and environmental management approach, are presented. Initially, a bibliographic review was carried out to recognize the dimensions, application approaches and variables used for the formulation of models that evaluate the social-ecological resilience and the impacts caused by the species. Subsequently, a series of indicators and indices were defined and applied based on the recognition of the different social perceptions regarding the presence of both species, their impacts and the transformation of the system within a specific period (1990-2050). Finally, with the identification of the required variables and the values obtained for each indicator/index, a dynamic simulation model was defined to evaluate the level of socioecological resilience in the lagoon, resulting in a value of 63. 1 for the year 2020; however, it is observed that the socioecological resilience value decreases considerably from 100 (initial value, 1990) to reach values close to 0 (year 2036), due to the advanced state of the problems experienced in the lagoon, in addition to the direct incidence of invasive species, and the low effectiveness of the control, monitoring, and intervention processes carried out so far.