Estimación de la capacidad de resiliencia ante eventos sísmicos de la Unidad de Planeamiento Local - UPL Tunjuelito, en Bogotá, mediante el uso de una metodología descriptiva de sistemas complejos

Abstract

Disaster response plans in Bogotá currently consider damage scenarios and support decision-making mainly based on the initial impacts of a seismic event, without fully addressing the territorial complexity and the elements that influence the capacity to withstand an event and the time required for recovery. This research evaluated resilience to seismic events associated with the “design earthquake,” as defined by the Colombian seismic-resistant building code, NSR-10, and parameterized with the values established in Bogotá’s district regulation, Decree 523 of 2010, for a Local Planning Unit, UPL, in Bogotá. The study focused on infrastructure conditions and on the institutional component related to plans and regulations for seismic emergency response. The UPL Tunjuelito was selected primarily because accelerograph data were available, as it was one of the few local planning units with more than one sensor for the analysis, including surface and downhole records. Compared with other alternatives, this UPL also offered more relevant conditions for the study, including terrain variability, a diverse building stock, informal construction, and urban conditions that made the evaluation more demanding. Based on this selection, the territory was characterized, the available information was collected, and the subfactors associated with four seismic resilience criteria were defined: robustness, redundancy, management capacity and event response, according to the approach proposed by (Bruneau & Chang, 2003), The information was then organized and, through descriptive methodologies of complex systems, the interaction between the analyzed factors was described and weighted in order to estimate the resilience capacity of the system and propose a methodology applicable to the studied territory. This approach is related to the case study presented by (DELGADO, 2023), which also incorporated fuzzy logic as part of the resilience assessment process. The study was developed within the literature that frames the definition, components and case studies of resilience to seismic events, with the purpose of presenting a methodology capable of evaluating the capacity of the studied territory to withstand a seismic event and recover from it, based on two scenarios: service capacity before and after the disruptive event. As part of the characterization of the UPL, information has been included on existing vital infrastructure, population, land use, and the number of sensors belonging to Bogotá Accelerograph Network, RAB. In the robustness analysis, numerical simulations were conducted to estimate the damage produced by a design earthquake in several representative building types within the UPL; these models has been calibrated using the accelerograph records from the sensor or sensors identified during the characterization stage. The contribution of this project consists of proposing a diagnostic methodology to estimate the resilience capacity to design seismic events in a UPL, based on selected variables used to assess redundancy, management capacity, response, and territorial robustness. This methodology may serve as an input for urban planning, asset management, and decisionmaking within the framework of district seismic risk management.