Mapeo de contagios de SARS-COV-2 y análisis del riesgo relativo con enfoque poisson para el periodo de marzo de 2020 a marzo del 2021 en Colombia

Abstract

Throughout the investigation, the aim is to analyze the spread of positive cases of SARS-Cov-2 in Colombia, since previous studies have shown that the contagion was related to health, socioeconomic, mobility and climatic conditions. However, these investigations have underestimated factors that could have a high relevance in the determinants, such as the presence and investment of the state, the demographics of the population and its spatial distribution. To carry out an epidemiological analysis, the mapping of diseases has been implemented throughout the Colombian territory at a municipal scale with the standardized incidence radius (SIR) technique, then the spatial autocorrelation is analyzed and later two models are proposed, one Poisson and the other Negative binomial to be able to interpret the relative risk in each municipality. After adjusting the models, the maps obtained make it possible to analyze the relative risk for each variable taken into account in the models and in general for the COVID-19 virus. Due to the counting nature of the data, the Poisson model allows an optimal interpretation of the current situation of the country in the face of the pandemic and the factors that have been ignored in order to prevent further spread.