Diagnóstico de factores que determinan la amenaza por fenómenos antrópicos en zonas afectadas por el conflicto armado

Abstract

This study presents a diagnosis of the factors that determine the threat posed by anthropic phenomena in areas affected by armed conflict, focusing on the municipalities of Florencia, La Montañita, Vista Hermosa, and Valencia—territories under significant environmental and social pressure. Documentary, regulatory, and technical information was gathered to identify threats such as deforestation due to agricultural expansion, illegal mining, uncontrolled urbanization, and water pollution. A Likert scale was subsequently applied to classify the severity of the identified impacts and assess the perceived effectiveness of various intervention measures. This tool facilitated the organization of data and comparison across territories. Additionally, environmental impact scales and statistical tools such as the Kendall and Spearman coefficients were used to evaluate the consistency and agreement of the results. The findings indicate a medium-high level of vulnerability, with significant impacts on physical, environmental, social, and economic dimensions. Structural causes include inadequate land use, lack of territorial planning, weak institutional presence, and the legacy of armed conflict. Recommendations are proposed to strengthen territorial planning, environmental management, and interinstitutional coordination to reduce the identified threat and vulnerability levels.