Identificación y evaluación de los escenarios de amenaza por sequía en el Municipio de Guataquí – Cundinamarca

Abstract

The present work aims to identify and evaluate the drought threat scenarios in the municipality of Guataquí, which begins by analyzing the current state of this threat in the municipality and culminates with the evaluation through the SEQUITY SEVERITY INDEX PALMER OR ISSP in order to identify areas at risk. In the first chapters of this project, the reader will be able to find the contextualization of the phenomenon and its characteristics, as well as the state in which the municipality is in relation to its territory and the phenomenon in particular. The methodology used to analyze this phenomenon was the ISSP that measures the level of drought from the recent precipitation and temperature. For that, the software PALMER 3.0 was used, additional ARC-GIS software was used for the Kriging interpolation method since this allows a spatial correlation of the municipal weather stations, and for the temperature calculations the thermal gradient was applied to the information of the available stations for the municipality and finally a descriptive statistic was done to the results to evaluate its behavior. For the respective analysis the information of 3 meteorological stations corresponding to the national network of stations of the IDEAM, the station of PIEDRAS located at the Identification and evaluation of drought threat scenarios in the municipality of Guataquí (Cundinamarca) 7 east of the municipality, the NARIÑO station to the south and the JERUSALEM station to the west of the municipality, this information is an important and fundamental part of the evaluation carried out. Additionally, an image obtained using the SAS Planet software was used to generate the cartography necessary in the process . The results obtained by the program allow a brief analysis of the situation of the municipality, this because of the precarious information of the stations and the fact that the software PALMER 3.0 is student license and restricts its use. The data obtained are dimensionless and are classified by the data in 11 categories, ranging from extremely wet to extreme drought, in the results the index fluctuates between extreme drought and incipient humidity. As a conclusion, the municipality was analyzed between 1999 and 2004 and it was possible to show in this index the phenomenon of the child occurred in 2004, besides the influence of the river Magdalena in the territory, being this part of the territory the one more affected by the drought and the part of the mountain that best confront the phenomenon. This is due to excessive livestock and deforestation near the river. The recommendation for this municipality is based on the need to advance processes using the tools exposed that make the analysis more useful and so the decision making regarding the problem analyzed, it is necessary to seek a management and articulation of the territorial entities so that the information is appropriate and allows a greater scope of these projects, since this project only refers to the tool and the utility of it. Traductor de Google para empresas:Google Translator ToolkitTraductor de sitios web