La enseñanza de las series de tiempo utilizando como modelo de estimación el método de promedio móvil en estudiantes de grado octavo

Abstract

Statistical education currently plays an important role in school because it has an essential field in decision-making, consequently, the need arises to predict or estimate future values in terms of the study of a variable, either of social or economic behavior for these determinations. This work is located in the field of statistical education and presents a proposal that allows the teaching of a concept of time series in eighth grade students, this work consists of the creation or modification of activities to strengthen the estimation through moving averages which are immersed in the time series statistical method, due to this the component of statistical literacy and ability of transnumbering assigned in the statistical culture will be taken. The main results are components and emerging skills in student learning in the time series, such as statistical reasoning; which is based on the consideration of the variation by them when carrying out moving averages and smoothing the series with the moving averages. In turn, it was possible to identify statistical thinking regarding the evaluation of results such as the reliability of the forecast in relation to its mean square error, a skill described in the reasoning of uncertainty in a statistical situation immersed in a social context.