Propuesta de una Metodología para el Pronóstico de la Demanda Utilizando Método de Series de Tiempo en Laboratorios La Santé S.A

Abstract

The purpose of planning the demand is none other than: Generate the sales estimate for the organization, that is, what fraction of the demand will be possible to satisfy with the production of their goods and / or services. For this reason, having a good forecast of the demand will allow the organization to efficiently project its activities and processes, complying with its income and costs budgets, without losing sight of its policies and budgets, thus reaching -in this way- your strategic objectives. These forecasts play a very important role in the cash flow of any company, such as the generation of sales (more assertiveness in the demand contributes to the fulfillment of the needs in the time established by the client, which represents a higher level of service to customers), in reduction of operating costs (effective and better projected production), and improvement of working capital. This tool will help the objective of having a methodology for the realization of demand forecasts that reduce the uncertainty of the data and give information for a better decision making and thus improve the efficiency of the planning of the demand, this in turn can contribute to improve the level of service to customers and inventory levels which represents a positive change to the current situation experienced by the company, in an activity as sensitive as is the forecast of demand. This ambitious objective requires the participation and cooperation of all the departments and activities involved, understanding and understanding the role they have in this objective. By generating a reliable forecast, the company will be able to have a quantitative tool that will help it to better analyze the behavior of the demand and thus make decisions that can generate wealth and wellbeing while being efficient in the use of its resources.