Identificación De Los Posibles Impactos Del Cambio Climático Sobre Las Áreas Óptimas de Los Principales Productos De La Canasta Básica Alimentaria En El Departamento De Cundinamarca

Abstract

Agriculture is one of sector most vulnerable to climate change impacts, due to it would hope changes in conditions of precipitation and temperature for Cundinamarca, affecting the crops development, therefore, it is necessary to identify the changes over areas of food production most important for food security under climate change scenarios which will allow the implementation of opportune adaptation measures for most affected municipalities. There were interpolate data for each crop according their optimum ranges of precipitation and temperature, and with the preposition of these variables it was determined the current area and spacialization of crops, as well as the projections for the periods 2011 – 2040 and 2070 – 2100 under A2 y B2 climate change scenarios. The results showed that under new climatic conditions, the potato and vetch crops tend to disappear, while for rice crop, it would hope an increase on optimum areas of production. For A2 2011 - 2040 and B2 2011 - 2040 sceneries there will be presented a reduction near to 74% of cultivable area for all nine crops, against to A2 2070 - 2100 and B2 2070 – 2100 scenarios which indicate a rise of optimum area close to 5% respect the current.