Modelo para la predicción del deterioro de la malla vial de la ciudad de Bogotá (localidades Suba y Kennedy)

Abstract

Pavement management systems provide tools that help maintain road infrastructure in good condition. Among these tools, deterioration models stand out, as they predict pavement behavior based on performance indicators such as the PCI. In Bogotá, the Road Maintenance Unit (UMV) lacks such predictive models, which limits the efficiency of its management processes. For this reason, this study developed a pavement deterioration prediction model using Markov chains, applied to the local road network in the Suba and Kennedy districts. The model was structured in four phases: data collection, definition of variables and deterioration families, modeling, and calibration. The resulting deterioration curves showed satisfactory fits, establishing this tool as a valuable aid to optimize road planning and management, and as a step forward toward implementing deterioration curves applicable throughout the city.