Metodología para la determinación de zonas de vulnerabilidad en el volcán Nevado del Ruiz basados en análisis multicriterio y lógica difusa

Abstract

The Nevado del Ruiz Volcano (VNR), located in the central mountain range of the Colombian Andes, represents a threat due to its historical and recent activity. The 1985 eruption, which caused the Armero tragedy, underlines the importance of developing robust methodologies to assess and manage volcanic risk. This project is based on proposing a new methodology to generate cartography for vulnerability studies in a given area, in this case using the VNR as a source of threat. It is desired to implement as a research base raster files in TIFF format so that, by representing each of the influential factors in the study phenomenon (slopes, hydrology, land cover, atmosphere), these factors can be processed by multicriteria analysis algorithms and fuzzy logic and thus generate graphical outputs with vulnerability zones and thus compare the obtained results with the expected ones. The methodology includes data collection activities, information processing and analysis, fuzzy normalization and application of Multicriteria Analysis (MCA) to integrate multiple evaluation factors. Topographic, climatic and land cover data were obtained from satellite platforms (Sentinel 1, Sentinel 2, Landsat and MERRA 2). In addition, GNSS data measurements were incorporated in the study area by means of a Leica receiver to corroborate the data obtained from the MDT digital elevation model by means of radar interferometry. The software used to generate this methodological proposal were Quantum Gis and ArcGIS Pro as bases for the development of the Geographic Information System (GIS) and the analysis of the information obtained, SNAP for the management of the interferograms and the development of the MDT model and finally Leica Infinity to obtain the position and height data collected in the field. The final result will be represented by a map generated based on the raster data representative of each influence factor, processed by the algorithms of Multicriteria Analysis (MCA) and Fuzzy Logic which will identify the different areas of vulnerability present in the area of interest, centrally located in the Arenas crater, with portions of the departments of Caldas, Risaralda, Tolima and Quindío.