Análisis de la cadena de suministro del GLP (Gas Licuado de Petróleo) en Colombia mediante dinámica de sistemas

Abstract

This study shows the results of the characterization of the supply chain of liquefied petroleum gas through the dynamics of systems as a simulation methodology. Initially, an international and national panorama of the production, distribution and consumption of LPG is presented, as well as the determinations of the variables and influential actors in the system and how the general behavior of the supply chain affects the relationships between these affected. Likewise, a collection of historical data that was subsequently cleaned, processed and mined through the Weka data mining tool for the creation of a mathematical model that allows us to understand how the system works today. The analysis of this mathematical model will determine the supply of LPG in Colombia, understood as: the current pattern of LPG production and the percentage of it that is destined for residential consumption and stationary tanks, is limiting demand and generating service levels that affect your competitiveness. the design of improvement strategies focused on changing the production pattern and increasing the current supply of LPG in the country, increasing the level of service and therefore the competitiveness of the sector by 50% more than what is being done today satisfying demand, as well as reducing the percentage of production destined for own consumption by petrochemical companies by 5%.