Aplicación de un modelo predictivo para el análisis del impacto generado por el cambio de cobertura urbana en el municipio de Mosquera, Cundinamarca

Abstract

Multitemporal studies of changes in land cover and use are widely used to understand the impact of anthropogenic actions on systems. For this, predictive models are a great tool for analysis that facilitates decision making to anticipate, prevent and mitigate the effects generated by such changes. The need to apply a simulation model of the change in urban coverage as a tool for territorial planning in the municipality of Mosquera, Cundinamarca, is due to the high growth rate of the western part of the Bogotá savannah and the impact that the establishment of the free zones, the services of the dormitory city provided by the municipality to the city and the creation of quarries generate on the environment. The main objective of this project is to apply a simulation model, through the use of Geographic Information Systems - GIS tools, to represent the scenario of future urban expansion in the Municipality of Mosquera, Cundinamarca, in 2025 and, based on this simulation, to identify and describe the environmental impacts that this expansion produces; obtaining as a result that the natural coverages present an indicator of environmental importance of the critical impact, being this the greatest impact generated.