Modelación de la dinámica poblacional del venado cola blanca (Odocoileus Virginianus Goudotii) en el Parque Nacional Natural Chingaza

Abstract

In this paper the results of ecological simulation of the population dynamics of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginiaus goudotii) in the Chingaza National Park are presented to establish the spatial distribution, population size, possible migration routes outside the Park and possible conflicts with surrounding people by occupation of these spaces and competition for resources; but also it allowed to analyze the behavior of its population abundance and currently face several scenarios as different sizes of cougar population (top predator), different rates of hunting use and the other with different rates of mortality due to predation by feral dogs. As a further purpose to provide information for environmental conservation and population management (metapopulation) white-tailed deer in the Chingaza National Park. Organic three programs that are Maxent Simulation 3.3, 10.0 and Stella ARC 8.0® GIS in which character abiotic variables were related biotic used. The simulation data ahead with a real scenario which is the Paramo de Chingaza from secondary information. Sig of modeling with ArcGIS 10.0 and 3.3 Maxent was found that the area occupied by the white-tailed deer population in the area Chingaza Paramo is estimated at 237.788 km². This amounts to 31% of the total area of ​​Chingaza Park which is 766 km ². This patterned area corresponds to the area of ​​habitat suitability for this subspecies of whitetail deer in the ecosystem of tropical wilderness of the high Andean mountains. Regarding the estimate of the total population of white-tailed deer that could be occupying this area mentioned, and supported by the data reported by Mateus (2014) on population density, modeling showed that the population for Chingaza Park, wealth would be in around 4869 deer. The population dynamics of white-tailed deer in the park Chingaza show that white-tailed deer population is growing tenure to the exponential increase due to the low impact of regulatory factors of its population abundance. In a time of 15 to 20 years, the ecological integrity of the moor Chingaza may be affected due to excessive impact on vegetation resulting from population growth white-tailed deer. The role of the regulator population puma as white-tailed deer in the Chingaza Park, is minimal and what actually controls the deer population size is the resort-vegetation. A white-tailed deer population as Chingaza, subject to the rate of predation by feral dogs 0.228, can reach a balance of population and resources after more than 100 years of interactions. Modeling with hunting use, he showed that the three scenarios use 20, 25 and 30% do have short term effect to regulate the current population of white-tailed deer in the Chingaza Park.