Estudio de la variabilidad climática y análisis espacio-temporal de la temperatura del océano Pacifico en el departamento de Nariño : periodo de estudio 2018-2023

Abstract

Climate variability and its influence on oceanic and atmospheric systems represent an increasingly relevant field of study, particularly in the Colombian Pacific, where large-scale phenomena such as El Niño and La Niña significantly alter environmental and socioeconomic dynamics. This research analyzes the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the department of Nariño over the period 2018–2023, integrating satellite data from Landsat 7 and 8 sensors with hydrometeorological records from local IDEAM stations. The methodological framework combines statistical and spatial approaches to characterize regional climatic variability. Data were processed and refined to ensure coherence and representativeness, incorporating both oceanic and atmospheric variables within a unified analytical scheme. After normalizing the datasets and verifying their statistical distributions, regression models were developed to explore the relationships between SST and geographical or hydrometeorological parameters, whose predictive accuracy was assessed through cross-validation. Subsequently, geostatistical methods were applied to describe the spatial dependence of the data, including anisotropy estimation, adjustment of experimental and theoretical variograms, and the generation of continuous surfaces through Kriging and Radial Basis Function (RBF) interpolation techniques. The study identified a defined spatial structure in SST distribution, showing significant correlations with latitude, longitude, wind speed, solar radiation, and evapotranspiration. The methodological approach adopted provides a robust framework for analyzing oceanic and climatic variability in the southern Colombian Pacific, contributing to a deeper understanding of ocean–atmosphere interactions at the regional scale.