Análisis de la dinámica de coberturas naturales del complejo de páramo Los Picachos bajo escenarios de cambio climático

Abstract

The paramo ecosystems have a high relevance for Colombia because of the provision of ecosystem services that are needed for the country development, mainly, for the hydric regulation. This reflects the importance of knowing the influence of the Climate Change on this ecosystems, which is in harmony with the commitments made by the nation at COP21. The principal objective of this research is to make an analysis of the land cover spatial distribution change in the Los Picachos paramo complex under the climatic change scenarios established by the Third National Communication of Climate Change for the determined scenarios: 2011 to 2040, 2041 to 2070 and 2071 to 2100. For the above, it was held identification of the land covers present in the paramo complex, which were contrasted with the current climatic conditions, in order to identify how the precipitation and the temperature influence in the spatial distribution of paramo ecosystem. Subsequently, according to the climatic models for the future periods, it was established the potential distribution of the study ecosystem with a view to determinate the expected change dynamic. In conclusion, as per the climate models obtained for the interest periods, it is hoped a loss of 69.99% of middle paramo area for the year 2100, being one of the most affected zones for this phenomena. With regard to sub-paramo it was estimated a decrease of 39.53% of its area and the 57.65% of the Forest - Paramo Transition Zone (ZTBP, in Spanish).