Predicción de zonas de riesgo de filariasis linfática en el territorio colombiano a partir de modelos de distribución de especies basados en máxima entropía

Abstract

In Colombia, the number of people reported with lymphatic filariasis (LF) to the Integrated Social Protection Information System (SISPRO) had an increase of 539% in the years 2019 and 2020 compared to the previous years between 2009 and 2018, figures that motivated the realization of this research, since currently the Colombian government does not consider LF as a public health problem, nor as a neglected disease that needs prioritization. This research proposes the generation of models based on maximum entropy for the creation of ecological niches and distribution of species that allow characterizing the areas of presence of Culex quinquefasciatus, the vector that transmits the disease. Based on the cut-off thresholds, three risk zones were created and crossed with the municipalities that reported LF cases in the country, achieving an intersection of 88% of the municipalities in the least rigorous scenario and 72% in the most stringent scenario. Additionally, a fourth risk zone was created for the municipalities where cases had already been reported and with this panorama, 8.4% of the municipalities were characterized at very high risk, 28.5% at high risk, 2.2% at medium risk, and 24.3% at risk. low and 36.6% without risk.