Una evaluación de los potenciales efectos del cambio climático sobre la Distribución Nymphargus Ignotus (Lynch, 1990) (Amphibia, Anura, Centrolenidae)

Abstract

Anthropogenic climate change threatens global biodiversity as climate is one of the driving factors behind its reorganization. Amphibians, especially anurans, have shown alterations in their diversity and distribution patterns due to this issue. This study assesses the potential effects of climate change on the distribution of Nymphargus ignotus (Lynch, 1990), an endemic glass frog from the Western Cordillera of Colombia, under two future scenarios from the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the IPCC (2021): SSP1-2.6, with low CO2 emissions reaching 0% by 2070, and SSP3-7.0, with CO2 emissions doubling current concentrations by 2100. The preliminary results described here project a significant reduction in the potential distribution area of the species under the most critical trajectory by 2050. Considering the low dispersal rates of anurans and other additional pressures such as habitat loss and fragmentation due to mining and agriculture, it is pertinent to continue evaluating the threats faced by N. ignotus, whose populations are gradually decreasing. Additionally, it is necessary to consolidate information on distribution ranges, population monitoring, and fundamental aspects of the natural history of N. ignotus to incorporate more complex analyses into these models. It is recommended that future research includes proper model parameterization to avoid biases and overestimations. This would allow for the anticipation and development of timely conservation strategies that could maintain the species in its least concern category.