Modelización de escenarios para contaminantes atmosféricos de criterio mediante la plataforma de análisis de bajas emisiones (LEAP-IBC): un caso de estudio en 4 categorías de emisiones para Colombia

Abstract

Some productive activities emit substances into the atmosphere that negatively alter air quality. Within the framework of this problem, Colombia has acquired international commitments related to the reduction of greenhouse gases and short-lived climate pollutants, while, has worked internally to reduce criteria pollutant levels based on various resolutions. Among the studies that support air quality management and decision-making, the Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies (IDEAM) carried out the inventory of criteria pollutants and black carbon for the country in 2014 in order to identify the emission sources and the contribution of each economic sector to air pollution. This work focuses on criteria pollutants and black carbon, and it’s based on the inventory presented by IDEAM to prioritize emission categories and propose measures that contribute to the reduction of emissions by 2030 and 2050, generating mitigation scenarios thanks to the Low Emission Analysis Platform (LEAP). Initially, the data from the national inventory of criteria pollutants and black carbon corresponding to activity and emission factors for each category of emissions presented were loaded, later, demographic and economic information was collected to make projections of emissions to 2030 and 2050 to generate the reference scenario, with the projections and a bibliographic search system, the categories to prioritize were identified and measures were formulated according to projects, measures and strategies carried out by the country that are aligned with the research work. The need to prioritize the residential sector, transport, agriculture and the use of coal was evidenced. For the residential sector, changes in the use of firewood were modeled according to the national plan for the progressive substitution of firewood; for the transport sector, technological change and the substitution of diesel vehicles were taken into account; for the agricultural sector the appropriate national action of mitigation (NAMA) for panela was modeled, and for coal, changes in industry consumption were modeled at a national and international level. In addition, the changes in the residential sector show a co-benefit in public health, since it shows a reduction in premature deaths due to the reduction of indoor pollution by 2050.