Análisis espacial de exposición y vulnerabilidad de infraestructura frente al aumento del nivel del mar bajo escenarios climáticos en San Andrés

Abstract

Sea level rise (SLR) is one of the most significant threats faced by island territories in the context of climate change, particularly due to its potential impact on critical infrastructure and coastal settlements. This research aimed to conduct a spatial analysis of the exposure and vulnerability of strategic infrastructure on San Andrés Island, Colombia, under six projected sea level rise scenarios for the years 2030 and 2050, based on IPCC data. To achieve this, an automated model was developed in ArcGIS Pro 3.3 using ModelBuilder, simulating potential flood surfaces through the reclassification of a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and assessing their intersection with infrastructure layers such as buildings, roads, and energy distribution points. Geoprocessing tools were used to quantify the affected elements. In addition, a methodology was adapted to classify territorial vulnerability into three levels—high, medium, and not vulnerable—based on flood zones and a buffer. Results show a progressive increase in both the flooded area and the number of affected infrastructure elements, particularly in the 2050 scenarios, even with minimal sea level rise increments. This study offers a replicable and accessible methodology that can support decision-making processes in risk management, spatial planning, and the development of climate change adaptation strategies in insular contexts.